Budget credibility – the degree to which governments implement their budgets – is a challenge all over the world, in a wide range of sectors and programs. Nigeria has long had severe budget credibility issues, and recent evidence suggests the problem has not improved. The Federal Government has historically set aggressive revenue and expenditure targets that it is unable to meet annually. In Nigeria, budget credibility challenges are also found within state budgets; however, the extent of these issues is less documented, and the drivers of budget credibility challenges are not yet fully understood. Budget credibility challenges are also likely to vary between state governments, which have potential implications for the geographical distribution of resources and equity.
This brief explores budget credibility challenges in Jigawa state, looking specifically at budget credibility in aggregate expenditures and revenues of the state budget, as well as expenditures on programs in the agriculture and health sectors. Our aim is to understand how the Jigawa state government utilizes funds set aside in the annual budget generally, and specifically for agriculture and health between 2018 and 2021, in terms of prioritizing and implementing initiatives to raise citizens’ standard of living.
We briefly discuss the methodology and limitations of this research, and then provide an overview of the budgeting process in Jigawa state. We present our findings from our analysis and the challenges related to budget credibility in the health sector, followed by our findings and analysis of budget credibility challenges in the agricultural sector. We conclude with recommendations based on the findings discussed.