Case Study, Paper

That’s Incredible! The Contours of Budget Credibility in Nigeria

Revised September 2019 | By Samuel Atiku and Jason Lakin

Budget credibility – the degree to which governments implement their budgets – is a challenge all over the world, in a wide range of sectors and programs. Nigeria has long had severe budget credibility issues, and recent evidence suggests the problem has not improved. While central government reports do sporadically acknowledge budget credibility challenges, understanding the nature and extent of low budget credibility in Nigeria requires digging further into disaggregated revenue and expenditure data.

This paper probes the various factors that that may be contributing to the low credibility of the budget in Nigeria and presents an analysis structured around an assessment of eight different hypotheses for what could be driving the problem.





the contours of budget credibility in nigeria ibp 2019.pdf

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Atiku Oluwatobi Samuel

Senior Program Officer, Nigeria,

Samuel Atiku serves as a technical coordinator at the International Budget Partnership, a Washington DC-based think tank working to advance public budget systems that work for people, not special interests. Prior to joining the Center in 2019, Samuel was the Head of Research and lead Data Analyst at BudgIT Foundation, a Nigerian-based Non-Governmental organisation.

Samuel has written extensively on a range of fiscal policy issues covering Domestic Resource Mobilisation (DRM), Digital economy, Public debt sustainability (PDS), Budget Credibility, Cost of governance, Expenditure efficiency and effectiveness (E, E & E), Program based budgeting (PBP) and Fiscal Transparency, Participation, and Accountability.

He is a 2020 alumni of the US Department of State’s International Visitors Leadership Program, a professional exchange program where he focused on “Transparency and Ethics in Government”. Samuel holds a Masters by Research (MRes) in Public Administration from the University of Portsmouth, UK. He is also an alumnus of the Harvard Kennedy School.

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